Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-21

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-11) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-11 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-11. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-11. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-11. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-11. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-11)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-11) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 58 (36 – 80) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 34 (7.6 – Inf)
Algeria 118 (84 – 149) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (7.9 – Inf)
Argentina 114 (84 – 145) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 46 (11 – Inf)
Armenia 48 (27 – 70) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 22 (6.2 – Inf)
Australia 44 (21 – 65) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -18 (14 – Inf)
Austria 95 (60 – 121) Decreasing 0.6 (0.5 – 0.8) -7.2 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 44 (22 – 65) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (17 – Inf)
Bahrain 61 (38 – 83) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -11 (210 – Inf)
Bangladesh 299 (245 – 345) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.3 (5.9 – 14)
Belarus 458 (392 – 520) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 19 (11 – 62)
Belgium 1346 (1226 – 1453) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -250 (55 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 49 (22 – 71) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 52 (7.1 – Inf)
Brazil 2655 (2504 – 2795) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 13 (10 – 17)
Cameroon 45 (24 – 62) Unsure 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 14 (4.7 – Inf)
Canada 1574 (1464 – 1690) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (19 – 74)
Chile 444 (378 – 501) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 52 (18 – Inf)
China 110 (67 – 159) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 33 (8.2 – Inf)
Colombia 171 (132 – 208) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 85 (13 – Inf)
Cote dIvoire 50 (28 – 71) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 48 (7 – Inf)
Croatia 35 (15 – 52) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -10 (38 – Inf)
Cuba 59 (32 – 81) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 73 (8.4 – Inf)
Czechia 126 (92 – 157) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.1) -48 (19 – Inf)
Denmark 176 (137 – 213) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -98 (22 – Inf)
Djibouti 99 (68 – 124) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 7.9 (4.7 – 26)
Dominican Republic 277 (227 – 326) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 20 (10 – 230)
Ecuador 391 (325 – 444) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -19 (20 – Inf)
Egypt 162 (122 – 197) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 37 (12 – Inf)
Estonia 38 (16 – 58) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 42 (6 – Inf)
Faroe Islands 13 (0 – 46) Likely increasing 5.9 (0 – 14.3) -0.46 (0.32 – Inf)
Finland 134 (98 – 165) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 40 (11 – Inf)
France 1670 (1534 – 1788) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.7) -9.2 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2801 (2636 – 2968) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -47 (310 – Inf)
Ghana 96 (68 – 125) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 9.9 (5.2 – 85)
Greece 14 (3 – 26) Decreasing 0.5 (0.2 – 0.8) -3.9 (Inf – Inf)
Guinea 44 (24 – 62) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 19 (5.8 – Inf)
Hungary 83 (53 – 109) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -48 (15 – Inf)
Iceland 16 (1 – 28) Unsure 0.9 (0.3 – 1.5) -18 (4.8 – Inf)
India 1203 (1102 – 1306) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 25 (16 – 55)
Indonesia 354 (298 – 406) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 55 (17 – Inf)
Iran 1459 (1341 – 1556) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -34 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 32 (13 – 47) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -23 (9.8 – Inf)
Ireland 717 (634 – 795) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -37 (480 – Inf)
Israel 270 (215 – 311) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (Inf – Inf)
Italy 3372 (3189 – 3530) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -40 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 539 (464 – 602) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -25 (Inf – Inf)
Kazakhstan 98 (67 – 126) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 45 (9.5 – Inf)
Kosovo 32 (15 – 50) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -42 (8.3 – Inf)
Kuwait 121 (86 – 149) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 23 (8.4 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 31 (11 – 49) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) -250 (6.2 – Inf)
Latvia 19 (5 – 34) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 43 (4 – Inf)
Lebanon 20 (0 – 42) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.5) -11 (2.3 – Inf)
Lithuania 62 (34 – 86) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 8.5 (4.1 – Inf)
Luxembourg 55 (26 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 41 (6.5 – Inf)
Malaysia 81 (51 – 104) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -9.8 (Inf – Inf)
Mexico 594 (522 – 664) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (9.9 – 27)
Moldova 107 (79 – 136) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -65 (18 – Inf)
Morocco 199 (158 – 241) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 10 (6.5 – 27)
Netherlands 1093 (991 – 1186) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -100 (61 – Inf)
New Zealand 11 (0 – 22) Unsure 0.8 (0.1 – 1.5) -4.1 (3.4 – Inf)
Niger 22 (4 – 38) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -7.6 (14 – Inf)
Nigeria 55 (32 – 76) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.2) 5.9 (3.4 – 21)
North Macedonia 61 (34 – 85) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 31 (7.4 – Inf)
Norway 101 (69 – 128) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 72 (11 – Inf)
Oman 82 (57 – 111) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 100 (9.9 – Inf)
Pakistan 482 (415 – 544) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.8 – 25)
Palestine 13 (0 – 24) Unsure 1.6 (0.5 – 2.6) 4.2 (1.7 – Inf)
Panama 176 (136 – 214) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -94 (20 – Inf)
Peru 1050 (958 – 1145) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 33 (16 – Inf)
Philippines 208 (162 – 243) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -88 (24 – Inf)
Poland 425 (370 – 484) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 29 (14 – Inf)
Portugal 532 (465 – 597) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -20 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 60 (36 – 79) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 100 (8.8 – Inf)
Qatar 422 (362 – 479) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.7 (7 – 16)
Romania 375 (316 – 430) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 220 (23 – Inf)
Russia 4509 (4281 – 4716) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.7 (7.7 – 9.9)
Saudi Arabia 852 (767 – 938) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.8 (7 – 12)
Serbia 364 (311 – 422) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (14 – Inf)
Singapore 697 (631 – 777) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.5 (6 – 10)
Slovakia 70 (43 – 95) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 7.4 (4.1 – 31)
South Africa 162 (124 – 198) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 11 (6.7 – 41)
South Korea 22 (3 – 37) Unsure 0.8 (0.4 – 1.3) -13 (8.9 – Inf)
Spain 4606 (4395 – 4792) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 180 (46 – Inf)
Sweden 603 (538 – 678) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (15 – Inf)
Switzerland 357 (303 – 415) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -16 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 27 (10 – 41) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -16 (11 – Inf)
Tunisia 33 (12 – 53) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 17 (4.5 – Inf)
Turkey 4216 (4040 – 4421) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -76 (Inf – Inf)
Ukraine 432 (369 – 490) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (11 – 75)
United Arab Emirates 357 (300 – 410) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (33 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5347 (5150 – 5579) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -96 (280 – Inf)
United States of America 30026 (29457 – 30503) Increasing 1 (1 – 1) 460 (92 – Inf)
Uruguay 20 (2 – 35) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2.1) 24 (3.4 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 74 (46 – 99) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -20 (24 – Inf)